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Lest We Get Complacent

Now I know I said I didn't want this blog to be all gloom and doom, and I'm making sure my own life isn't all gloom and doom too, but I had to point this one out. Sharon has an excellent post today about the latest numbers from the International Energy Agency, the people who make it their business to keep track of energy business.

The numbers are bad. The Financial Times article, based on leaked information from the IEA, states that without some miracle new source of oil, or major investment in drilling current known sources, they expect oil production to decline at the rate of 9.1% annually from here on out. Here's the quote (and it's all I can get out of the link because I don't subscribe to FT):

World will struggle to meet oil demand
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas in London
Published: October 28 2008 23:32 Last updated: October 28 2008 23:32

Output from the world’s oilfields is declining faster than previously thought, the first authoritative public study of the biggest fields shows.

Without extra investment to raise production, the natural annual rate of output decline is 9.1 per cent, the International Energy Agency says in its annual report, the World Energy Outlook, a draft of which has been obtained by the Financial Times.

9.1% annually is far worse than anyone expected. Even the gloomiest, doomiest peak oil geeks. And I'm certainly no expert, but I think we should all be aware of this underlying problem we're facing. We're all happy that gas is cheap right now--heck, it really helped us on our road trip to Virginia--but I don't think we can get complacent about it. I don't know why oil is cheap right now, probably some mix of speculation, decreased demand and presidential politics (read: corruption). Can you imagine where our economy would be right now if gas was still $4 a gallon?!

Is peak oil now history? (Meaning, we're past the peak at the top of the bell curve and we're going downhill as we speak?) Richard Heinberg, Senior Fellow of the Post Carbon Institute, declares it to be so in this essay.

And here's a May 2008 National Geographic article I read while on vacation, Tapped Out. It gives credence to the Peak Oil Theory, and has an optimistic side to it too. I'm not sure how realistic hope is at this point, especially since all our money just went to bail out Wall Street bankers who are still not exactly giving out credit to jumpstart any new investments in anything, including oil exploration. And my long-term hope is that we learn (and probably learn fast) how to live without oil and its polluting ways.

And I think we can do that. But first we're going to need to be aware of what's going on. All the links are worth a look. Don't take it from me--they're the experts.


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Comments

Connie said…
I know, just about the time I try and trick myself into thinking the numbers on wall streat are a good thing someone has to come along with facts. ;-)
9:41 PM
CoCargoRider said…
I do not like to say thinks like this, but in some ways I think we need this to happen faster to get people more motivated.
Namaste,
Devin
8:53 AM
Kristin said…
Wow, now that is difficult stuff to read about. Thanks for keeping me aware-I don't want to be complacent. I am so busy it is hard sometimes to go beyond the headline news (The Election, currently).
10:06 AM
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